Manchester United have been in need of a striker all window (or arguably for a decade). We mentioned links to Benjamin Šeško and Randal Kolo Muani in Tuesday's newsletter, but Sebastian Vidal says that Ollie Watkins is their actual top target.
Aston Villa’s current asking price is £60m, and United value him at closer to £45m. If recent trends are any indication, this means that United will buy him for £65m.
Watkins is, if nothing else, extremely consistent. He’s been the exact same guy for two seasons in a row, which is a comfortably above average but not elite striker who scores at right on his xG and provides some dribbling value to go with his solid shot volume and locations.
The Transfer FlowWatkins would certainly be an improvement on Man United’s current players, but isn’t getting them close to competing at the top of the league, and will not increase in value. You’ve already heard this spiel about the last two guys United signed.
The more interesting aspect of this rumoured transfer is who Villa could potentially replace Watkins with, and whether or not that makes the deal worthwhile to them. They’ve inquired about Loïs Openda, who had a significant down year after an outrageous 2023-24.
Check out this piece from Ashwin Raman on Scouted, where he argues for buying the dip on Openda.
The Transfer FlowHis pace and work rate were still looking excellent last year, and I think it’s likely that his true level is somewhere between last season’s numbers and what he did two seasons ago.
If Villa can sell Watkins for more than they’d pay for Openda, get a little bit of PSR relief and get 4 years younger at striker in the process, they should do it.