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Gold Cup: Mexico must avoid overconfidence if they are to lift 2025 trophy

CONCACAF Gold Cup

Mexico

Costa Rica

Dominican Republic

Suriname

The tough time the <a href="https://www.goal.com/en-us/lists/the-rondo-assessing-usmnt-after-losses-to-turkey-and-switzerland-pressure-on-mauricio-pochettino-and-realistic-gold-cup-expectations/blt63f46a66b23c52b1" target="_self">USMNT is going through</a>, combined with <a href="https://www.goal.com/en-us/lists/christian-pulisic-s-gold-cup-status-for-usmnt-provoked-an-unproductive-verbal-volley-between-parties-that-should-be-unified/blt7c1aa647ab88090b" target="_self">the absence of Christian Pulisic</a> - who declined to participate in this summer's Gold Cup - increasingly opens the door for Mexico to become the tournament’s top favorite, not to mention Canada, which is going through a strong run of form.El Tri may not be experiencing one of their best generations - in fact, several experts predict a major failure at the upcoming 2026 World Cup, despite the team playing on home soil.Yet, the Gold Cup should be more straightforward. Mexico share Group A with the Dominican Republic - their opponent on Saturday - Suriname, and Costa Rica. On paper, only the match against the Ticos represents a real challenge for Javier Aguirre's team. Mexico and their former manager, Miguel Herrera, will face off in a match full of intrigue, but to be honest, El Tri are significantly stronger than Costa Rica.In the second round, they could face the United States if it advances but fails to win its group. That’s where the real test would begin for El Vasco and his squad.Mexico can win if they find defensive solidity, which appears to be their weakest point in this edition of the Gold Cup. The offense should find its rhythm quickly, as it's where the national team has the most firepower.

MEXICO CAN WIN IF

Aguirre’s team might fail to win the Gold Cup due to overconfidence. In terms of squad depth, the national team is superior to both the United States and Canada - two sides that could nonetheless deny them the title. El Tri, which dominated in the Nations League, have already shown several weaknesses during recent friendlies against Switzerland and Turkey, especially on the defensive end.On the road to the final, they could face tough opponents like the aforementioned teams, as well as Panama and Jamaica - sides that always make things difficult. We'll see how strong the Saudi Arabian team turns out to be, a team that could very well leave Mexico empty-handed.

MEXICO WON'T WIN BECAUSE

In terms of form, we could say that Raúl Jiménez is currently Mexico’s most in-form player. El Lobo is also close to catching up with Jared Borgetti and Chicharito, the all-time top scorers for the Mexican National Team.But let’s be honest - it’s Santiago Giménez’s moment. Without a doubt, he is the best Mexican player in Europe right now as he plays with AC Milan. However, he’s struggled to find consistency with the national team, having scored just four goals in 34 appearances for El Tri. Still, in Mexico, fans are confident he’ll shake off that bad run and arrive at the 2026 World Cup as the team’s star.

KEY PLAYER

Marcel Ruiz. Fans were loudly calling for his inclusion in the Mexican National Team, and Aguirre delivered by naming him to the 26-man roster. He had an outstanding season with Toluca, who went on to win the Clausura 2025 title. Aguirre started him against Turkey, and he left a strong impression. "He’s a star," the coach admitted after the final warm-up match ahead of the Gold Cup.We’ll see if Ruiz gains prominence during the tournament and manages to break into Aguirre’s starting lineups. Other players who could also emerge as potential X-factors include Alexis Vega and Orbelín Pineda.

X-FACTOR

Mexico will live up to their role as the favorite and win the Gold Cup undefeated. It will be their 10th title under the new format and a back-to-back championship, following their 2023 victory.

PREDICTION

Gold Cup Preview: Mexico must avoid overconfidence if they are to lift 2025 trophy | Goal.com

Mexico share Group A with the Dominican Republic, Suriname, and Costa Rica.

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